Compare a time-series forecast with a seasonal baseline
Build a previous-season reference, evaluate it on later observations and distinguish calendar alignment from leakage and missing data.
Time Series / Forecasting / Baseline / Validation
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Build a previous-season reference, evaluate it on later observations and distinguish calendar alignment from leakage and missing data.
Use chronological splits and fit preprocessing only on past data.
Understand the differences between Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), how to choose the right metric for your prediction task, and the impact of large errors on each.